Democrats, and democrats, were somewhat comforted by polls that Donald J. Trump has been by far the frontrunner in the GOP race for next year’s presidential nomination, but on top of that, President Biden could easily defeat the 45th president (and not necessarily any other Republican) next year. Things got uncomfortable for Democrats this week with release of a new New York Times/Siena College poll that shows Biden and Trump tied at 43%.
Trump remains far ahead of the rest of the 14-declared-candidate GOP field. Read details of that in …meanwhile… in the center column of https://thehustings.news.
The Trump v. Biden tie is an absolute tie, not a margin of error tie. Meanwhile, the current president’s approval rating remains stuck at a Trump-esque 39%, despite a falling Consumer Price Index in the face of a sustained low unemployment rate and diminishing worries over a recession. It seems 39% is the new tepid 47%.
It is worth recalling that about eight years ago this time, Trump had only recently descended his Golden Escalator into the presidential race (June 16, 2015, and it wasn’t entirely clear which party he would claim), with months to go before he would defy traditional Republicans’ hopes and expectations that the next primary on the calendar would be his last.
By the time Trump had vanquished everyone from Jeb Bush to Ted Cruz to Carly Fiorina, Hilary Clinton was so far ahead in the polls that the TV star/golf course developer’s GOP nomination was almost considered a blessing. Kind of like Joe Biden just a few weeks ago.
As Trump inched closer and closer to a margin-of-error tie with Clinton in the polls by fall of 2016, I could see an upset developing, though I hardly went so far as to run through the streets crying “they’re here!” like Kevin McCarthy (the actor, not the future speaker) at the end of Invasion of the Body Snatchers (1956).
What’s my point?
Yes, these are early, early polls. Between now and the last of the polls coming Monday, November 4, 2024, that 43-43 tie ought to be long gone. Which way will it flip? Will it still count Trump v. Biden or a different Republican or even a different Democrat? Will there be a No Labels spoiler claiming a margin-of-error number?
What if Trump takes the lead after a likely indictment over his involvement with January 6 (expected any hour now) and continues to build it?
What if, to put a blunt point on it, Biden’s decisive victory in 2020 was the political anomaly? What if the body snatchers are here to stay?
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