The Gilded Cage Match

Tesla stock price year-to-date is down (at least for the moment) by about 22%.

Elon Musk’s net worth is approximately $410,000,000,000. Yes, a lot of zeros, so even were his net worth to decline by 22%, that would be $319,800,000,000. Still a lot of zeros.

Since January 1, 2024, NASA has used SpaceX for three crewed missions, one in March 2024, one in September 2024, and one in March 2025. There were several other missions with SpaceX rockets (e.g., SPHEREx, PUNCH, EscaPADE).

NASA is presently dependent on SpaceX. United Launch Alliance had a NASA mission back in December 2023. Blue Origin has just been doing things like launching Katy Perry.

Donald Trump has recently claimed that Musk “gets a lot of subsidies” and that perhaps if these firms are under the DOGE chainsaw there is “BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED.”

Tesla offers five electric vehicle models: the Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, and the Cybertruck.

Depending on the trim, there are 8 variants that permit purchasers to obtain a $7,500 tax credit.

Now if the Senate language of the budget has held (it passed 51-50 Tuesday), the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles will end September 30. The House, surprisingly, is a bit more generous: it would run through the end of 2025, and for automakers who have sold fewer than 200,000 EVs over the years will have vehicles that can qualify for the credit until the end of 2026.

Tesla’s share of the US EV market is just over 40%. It was over 50% not that long ago, but there is (a) more competition from other vehicle manufacturers and (b) the whole “Elon is a ****” movement.

Still, Tesla is doing well in the market. Should the tax incentives for EVs be eliminated, that bill won’t be particularly “Beautiful” for General Motors, Ford. . .or Tesla. Arguably it will have less of an effect on Tesla simply because it has a bigger piece of the market.

Additionally, unlike traditional automakers, Tesla has done things like suddenly adjusted pricing in a notable way (down and up: because it is more efficient in its production that other automakers, it has higher margins on its vehicles, which can be trimmed and still come out ahead, though not as far) and Tesla hasn’t done things like advertise. (GM spent some $3 billion in 2024 on advertising, so evidently it works.

(Were Tesla to start spending on ads, it, too, might reap the benefits.)

So: (1) NASA is dependent on Musk. (2) Musk’s automotive fortunes (shrinking though they are) will not be devastated by the language in the budget bill, regardless of what passes.

Trump probably doesn’t understand that.

And Musk probably doesn’t understand that a purpose of a government is to help support the people who it governs. He may like DOGE. The majority of Americans don’t.

Both men have demonstrated they have little tolerance for those who don’t wholly agree with them. Consequently, their relationship is one that is intrinsically fraught with the seeds of failure.

And both men seem to have a world view that has it that people are out to screw them.

They’ve popularized the mantra “waste, fraud and abuse,” and even though it is repeated over and over and over again, there has been little in the way of what can be considered meaningful evidence — meaningful from the point that there could be “BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED.”

Sure, Trump could cut off SpaceX. But in 2024 a full 75% of SpaceX’s revenues came from commercial launches, and as indicated, 100% of NASA’s launches were on SpaceX equipment.

NASA could be shuttered — and as it represents ~0.5% of the 2025 federal budget, there is “NO BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED.”

Trump’s threats to Musk are not as chilling as they would be to anyone else who doesn’t happen to be the richest person in the world.

If the beef between the two really gets big, there is the possibility that Trump could nationalize SpaceX, and thereby reduce about 40% of a source of Musk’s wealth — and probably tank the stock market as investors see the treatment of private enterprise. (Why these people aren’t more concerned about tariffs being placed on things like Kia minivans because Trump invoked emergency powers predicated on national security grounds is curious, so it is hard to predict what they will do.)

As previously mentioned, if all incentives for electric vehicles are eliminated, Ford and General Motors will be impacted most at the showroom. And if, as is likely, they do go away, then this puts the US in a position that is substantially behind China in advanced technology.

According to a recent study by the International Energy Agency — a study pre-the-likely-elimination-of-incentives in the US, as well as the lifting of the California emissions waver — by 2030 electric car sales in China will be 80% of the total.

Europe? “Carbon dioxide targets support the achievement of a sales share close to 60%.”

The US? “Around 20% . . . less than half the share projected for 2030 last year.”

The billions invested by GM and Ford in electrification will be worth far less than they are at the moment. Which could be construed as “BIG MONEY TO BE LOST.”

Do either of these men understand that?

Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings.