Young, Female, Educated, Non-White: Sorry, Donald
If the presidential election were held today and the 53% of Americans under 30 who told Harvard Institute of Politics pollsters that they will “definitely be voting” did indeed vote, then Donald Trump is in trouble.
For likely voters under 30, it is Biden 56%, Trump 37%.
For registered voters under 30, it is Biden 50%, Trump 37%.
And for those young voters in general, it is Biden 45%, Trump 37%.
It is that consistent 37% that ought to make at least some of that orange hair go gray.
What’s more (or less for Trump) is his apparent popularity (or lack thereof) among female voters: Biden is 33 points ahead. While they are probably not single-issue voters, Trump’s non-humble brag about his putting an end to Roe v. Wade probably doesn’t help his situation with female voters.
College graduates are not in his camp, either: Biden leads by 47 points.
And for non-white young voters the lead is 43 points.
Trump’s Trials
Should Alvin Bragg (or Fani Willis or Jack Smith) be successful in the prosecution of Trump, then there is a shift in numbers among the young cohort:
Things get worse for Trump.
The eight-point lead that Biden has among all young voters increases by 10 points.
This is not to say that Biden isn’t without challenges among the young voters.
His approval rating, for example, is a sad 31%.
And while it might be imagined that Biden’s student debt relief efforts would give him remarkably high numbers, it only gets 39% approval — but that’s better than his handling of Ukraine (33%), economy (30%), gun violence (25%), inflation (23%), Israel-Hamas war (18%).
Dudes still score Biden higher than Trump by 6%. The young guys surveyed in 2020 put Uncle Joe 26% ahead.
Perhaps this is best characterized by the NASCAR fans who have been known to chant, at Biden’s expense, “Let’s go Brandon!” There is no analog mocking Trump at, say, Lollapalooza.
Ho-Hum
Which brings up a characteristic where Trump beats Biden among the young:
There is an enthusiasm gap.
Seventy-six percent of Trump voters say they enthusiastically support him. Only 44% of Biden voters are pumped up about the candidate.
Still, the delta between the two when it comes to likely behavior in the voting booth is clearly in Biden’s favor.
All of that said, they ought not bust out the cans of Juneshine 100 Pineapple Orange hard Kombucha or Loverboy Hibiscus Pom Hard Tea at Biden HQ.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in the 2020 Presidential election, those 18-29 represented only 16.5% of the total vote.
Macaulay is pundit-at-large for The Hustings.
Hello, voters under 30: Who would you vote for? Why? Leave a comment on this page or email editors@thehustings.news and indicate your political leanings in the subject line.